Last updated: April 2026
P(event) = favourable outcomes / total outcomes.
0.25
1/4
25%
1:3
3:1
Probability measures how likely an event is, from 0 for impossible to 1 for certain.
Independent events do not affect each other. Dependent events change the probability of later events.
Conditional probability updates a probability after new information is known.
The binomial distribution models repeated yes/no trials with the same success probability each time.
This calculator is designed to help you understand the likely number before you make a decision or start an application.
Your result should be checked against official UK guidance, especially if your circumstances include dependants, exemptions, prior leave, or a complex immigration history.
Treat the figure as a planning tool rather than legal advice. Where the answer affects an application deadline or major payment, speak to an authorised adviser.
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